Category Archives: Books

Books

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Everything Is Predictable: How Bayesian Statistics Explain Our World – Tom Chivers

At its simplest, Bayes’s theorem describes the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event. But in Everything Is Predictable, Tom Chivers lays out how it affects every aspect of our lives. He explains why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false positives and how a failure to account for it in court has put innocent people in jail. A cornerstone of rational thought, many argue that Bayes’s theorem is a description of almost everything.

But who was the man who lent his name to this theorem? How did an 18th-century Presbyterian minister and amateur mathematician uncover a theorem that would affect fields as diverse as medicine, law, and artificial intelligence?

Fusing biography, razor-sharp science writing, and intellectual history, Everything Is Predictable is an entertaining tour of Bayes’s theorem and its impact on modern life, showing how a single compelling idea can have far reaching consequences.

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Dinosaurs at the Dinner Party: How an Eccentric Group of Victorians Discovered Prehistoric Creatures and Accidentally Upended the World – Edward Dolnick

In the early 1800s the world was a safe and cozy place. But then a twelve-year-old farm boy in Massachusetts stumbled upon a row of fossilized three-toed footprints the size of dinner plates—the first dinosaur tracks ever found. Soon, in England, Victorians unearthed enormous bones—bones that reached as high as a man’s head.

Outside of myths and fairy tales, no one had imagined that creatures like three-toed giants once lumbered across the land. And if anyone conjured up such a scene, they would never imagine that all those animals could have vanished hundreds of millions years ago. The thought of sudden, arbitrary disappearance from life was unnerving and forced the Victorians to rethink everything they knew about the world. Celebrated storyteller and historian Edward Dolnick leads readers through a compelling true adventure as the paleontologists of the first half of the 19th century puzzled their way through the fossil record to create the story of dinosaurs we know today.

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Wanted: Toddler’s Personal Assistant – Stephanie Kiser

What are the lives of America’s richest families really like? Their nannies see it all…

When Stephanie Kiser moves to New York City after college to pursue a career in writing, she quickly learns that her entry-level salary won’t cover the high cost of living―never mind her crushing student loan debt. But there is one in-demand job that pays more than enough to allow Stephanie to stay in the city: nannying for the 1%. Desperate to escape the poverty of her own childhood, Stephanie falls into a job that hijacks her life for the next seven years: a glorified personal assistant to toddlers on Manhattan’s Upper East Side.

At first, nannying seems like the perfect solution―the high pay covers Stephanie’s bills, and she’s surprised by how attached she becomes to the kids she cares for, even as she gasps over Prada baby onesies and preschools that cost more than her college tuition. But the grueling twelve-hour days leave her little time to see her friends, date, or pursue any creative projects that might lead to a more prestigious career. The allure of the seemingly-glamorous job begins to dull as Stephanie comes to understand more about what really happens behind the closed doors of million-dollar Park Avenue apartments―and that money doesn’t guarantee happiness. Soon she will have to decide whether to stay with the children she’s grown to love, or if there’s something better out there just beyond her reach.

Wanted: Toddler’s Personal Assistant is alternately poignant and funny, a portrait of a generation of Americans struggling to find work they love balanced against the headwinds of global uncertainty and an economy stacked against anyone trying to work their way up from the bottom. It’s a provocative story of class, caregiving, friendship, and family―and a juicy, voyeuristic peek behind the curtain of obscene wealth and the privilege and opportunity that comes with it. In this unputdownable memoir, Stephanie chronicles her journey from newbie nanny to beloved caregiver—and the painful decision to eventually say goodbye to the children she has grown to love.

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Right Kind of Wrong: The Science of Failing Well – Amy C. Edmondson

We used to think of failure as the opposite of success. Now, we’re often torn between two “failure cultures”: one that says to avoid failure at all costs, the other that says fail fast, fail often. The trouble is that both approaches lack the crucial distinctions to help us separate good failure from bad. As a result, we miss the opportunity to fail well.

After decades of award-winning research, Amy Edmondson is here to upend our understanding of failure and make it work for us. In Right Kind of Wrong, Edmondson provides the framework to think, discuss, and practice failure wisely. Outlining the three archetypes of failure—simple, complex, and intelligent—Amy showcases how to minimize unproductive failure while maximizing what we gain from flubs of all stripes. She illustrates how we and our organizations can embrace our human fallibility, learn exactly when failure is our friend, and prevent most of it when it is not. This is the key to pursuing smart risks and preventing avoidable harm.

With vivid, real-life stories from business, pop culture, history, and more, Edmondson gives us specifically tailored practices, skills, and mindsets to help us replace shame and blame with curiosity, vulnerability, and personal growth. You’ll never look at failure the same way again.

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Empresses of Seventh Avenue: World War II, New York City, and the Birth of American Fashion – Nancy MacDonell

Calvin Klein. Ralph Lauren. Donna Karan. Halston. Marc Jacobs. Tom Ford. Michael Kors. Tory Burch. Today, American designers are some of the biggest names in fashion, yet before World War II, they almost always worked anonymously. The industry, then centered on Seventh Avenue in Manhattan, had always looked overseas for “inspiration”—a polite phrase for what was often blatant copying—because style, as all the world knew, came from Paris.

But when the Nazis invaded France in 1940, the capital of fashion was cut off from the rest of the world. The story of the chaos and tragedy that followed has been told many times—but how it directly affected American fashion is largely unknown.

Defying the naysayers, New York-based designers, retailers, editors, and photographers met the moment, turning out clothes that were perfectly suited to the American way of life: sophisticated, modern, comfortable, and affordable. By the end of the war, “the American Look” had been firmly established as a fresh, easy elegance that combined function with style. But none of it would have happened without the influence and ingenuity of a small group of women who have largely been lost to history.

Empresses of Seventh Avenue will tell the story of how these extraordinary women put American fashion on the world stage and created the template for modern style—and how the nearly $500 billion American fashion industry, the largest in the world, could not have accrued its power and wealth without their farsightedness and determination.