2020 Week 38 Update

And another week is gone. Sometimes it feels that 2020 is rushing by, which is probably a good thing, right, given how this year has turned out. What’s surprising is that this is happening even as most of us are stuck at home.

In Singapore, in the past week, daily cases have been dropping at a steady rate and we are hoping that Phase 3. Currently we are still in Phase 2 which is the phase where there is gradual resumption of activities in a phased manner and Phase 3 will be the new normal which will remain in place till an effective vaccine or treatment course for Covid-19 is developed. I am hopeful that we get into Phase 3 at least by the end of 2020. Also, given the low number of daily cases, I am now feeling slightly hopeful that when school reopens for GG & BB in mid-October, they will go back to school on a full-time basis as opposed to the hybrid model they had in the previous semester.

India on the other hand, is getting worse. Worldwide, the numbers have breached the 30 million mark and India has more than 5 million confirmed cases, behind the US which leads the world at about 6.5 million cases. The daily number of cases in India is also very high, with daily cases reaching close to 100,000 daily and is said to on the course to overtake the US as the country with the highest number of positive cases sooner than later.

Herd immunity is usually brought about by a vaccine or through natural immunity after a sizeable number of people gets infected and then help block the virus spread. Some epidemiologists believe that herd immunity is already taking place in small areas in India where high infection levels have been followed by a weakening of the Covid-19 virus. Others believe that it is too soon to predict or holds little promise. While the concept of natural herd immunity remains untested and even controversial because of the greater risk of mortality, recent Indian sero surveys have indicated that the virus spread is far more than official statistics have revealed in India. A sero-prevalence survey by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) found that India had an estimated 6.4 million infections in May, when official figures at mid-month put the number of positive cases at 85,940. Epidomologists believe that In areas with dense populations, the virus came under control when it reached 55 per cent to 60 per cent of those infected and new case formation reduced considerably. Many of the so called containment areas of the past now produce very little cases.

I just hope and pray things get better in India. When I see and hear about all this, I worry, almost on a constant basis, for my elderly parents who are stuck in Mumbai. They can’t even move out of the city becase of their health. Hopefully things get better in early 2021 and they can move to the retirement community they want to move to soon.

This was our week, hope you all had a better week! Stay safe everyone!

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